Is California Heading Towards a Political Earthquake?
By Martin Burns
“Gavin Newsom, the Democratic governor of deeply progressive California, is running for his political life. Newsom is in the midst of a recall election, in which Californians can vote “Yes” or “No” on his removal and then pick his replacement from a field of 46 candidates. His fate will be decided soon: The state has mailed ballots to some 20 million registered voters, and Election Day is Sept. 14. David Byler, “Gavin Newsom is in trouble…,” The Washington Post, August 23, 2021
The Inside the Beltway crowd has finally realized that there might well be a political earthquake coming from California next month. Usually, political earthquakes come in November of even numbered years. However, California does not play by the conventional rules.
Earlier this year, the prospect of what is currently happening in California would have seemed most unlikely. Unlike most states, Californians can vote to recall their governor through a recall election. Conservative activists and their allies were able to garner the 1.4 million signatures to place the recall on the ballot. So, on September 14th Californians will be faced with two questions: do they want to keep Newsome in the governor’s mansion and if they want to replace him which of the candidates would they pick to replace him?
Up until about a month or so ago, the prospect that a Democratic governor in the deep blue state of California would be in trouble in a recall election seemed like something out of science fiction. However, the current polling indicates that Gavin Newsome is in real political trouble.
Polling from CBS conducted from August 6–12 shows that Newsome has a four point advantage (48% yes, remove, 52% do not remove) while polling from KABC-TV Los Angeles/KGTV-TV San Diego/San Diego Union-Tribune show conducted earlier show Newsome at a significant disadvantage (51% yes remove, 40% no do not remove).
Why is Newsome in such a difficult position? David Byler of the Washington Post puts it very succinctly: “Newsom has three problems: covid-19, a cascade of economic and environmental challenges, and an energized Republican opposition.”
Conservative columnist George Will opines about the current situation in California:
“California has the nation’s highest cost-of-living-adjusted poverty rate and one-third of the nation’s welfare recipients. In 2020, when home building increased 6.1 percent nationally, in California, where regulations have congealed construction, home building declined 3.7 percent. In Texas, the median price of a home is 3.5 times the state’s median household income; in California, it is almost 10 times. The median home price in San Antonio is $226,665; in LA, $898,692. The state has more than half the nation’s unsheltered homeless.”
All of this would not be enough to push California towards a recall election if it was not for Governor Newsome’s perceived hypocrisy in dealing with COVID-19. To refresh your memory: early in the pandemic Newsome enacted several strict measures to deal with the pandemic (closing public schools and instituting a stay-at-home order) only to be caught dinning indoors without a mask at an upscale restaurant in wine country.
So, what are the odds the Newsome will hang on to the governorship? It may sound simplistic, but it all depends on who turns out to vote on September 14th (or who mails in their ballot). David Siders of Politico aptly summarizes the positions Democrats find themselves in:
“Donald Trump could swing the California governorship to a Republican. Merely by his absence. Democrats turned out in record numbers when they had Trump to vote against. But in one of the first, large-scale tests of voter enthusiasm for Democrats in the post-Trump era, California’s surprisingly close gubernatorial recall election is laying bare just how hard it may be for the party to motivate its base without Trump as a foil.”
Despite the inhospitable political climate, a few things ware working in the Democrats and Newsom’s advantage. First and foremost, the incumbent governor has a huge financial advantage. By some accounts, he has raised $57 million so far this year. Furthermore, he has assembled a 600-person field staff. These two things may pull Newsome over the finish line.
The best summary of this race comes from Antonio Villaraigosa, the former Democratic mayor of Los Angeles: “I think he [Newsom] pulls it out but it’s going to be close. It shouldn’t be. But it’s going to be very, very close because Republicans are animated, and we’re not.”
