Polling Update: August 21, 2020

By Martin Burns

The Race for the Senate

The Democratic polling firm PPP has some interesting polling out this week in two key Senate races where senior voters (those 65 plus) are playing a key role. In Maine, where Speaker Sarah Gideon (D) leads incumbent Senator Susan Collins (R) by a 49% to 44% margin, senior voters back Gideon by a 49% to 43% margin.

In Iowa, PPP finds challenger Theresa Greenfield (D) ahead of incumbent Senator Joni Ernst (R)by a margin of 48%-45%. Senior voters are providing Greenfield with her margin as they back her by 50% to 42% for Ernst. Also worth noting that in Iowa, 52% of seniors disapprove of President Trump’s job performance.

Is the Base Still with Trump?

Is Trump losing the base in the battleground states on his handling of the Corona virus? The data from CNN shows us that white non-college voters (53% approve, 44% disapprove) still back the president’s handling of the crisis. However, 51% of white non college voters feel that Trump could do more to fight the virus. Furthermore, 63% of white non college voters are embarrassed by the US response to the Corona virus.

The Third Rail Revisited

Social Security was not much of an issue back in 2016 when then candidate Donald Trump promised not to touch Social Security. New polling from Social Security Works and Data for Progress indicates that this has changed. Not surprisingly, 48% of those 45 plus see Social Security has one of their most important issues. Interestingly, this is an important issue for female voters (67% an important issue). Also, the issue resonates especially well with non-college voters (57% an important issue)

Battlegrounds: The Key Stone State

Muhlenberg College released polling in Pennsylvania showing Former Vice President Biden ahead of President Trump by a four point margin (49% Biden and 45% Trump). In terms of age groups, Biden does especially will with those 18 to 30 (58%). Interestingly, voters ages 50 to 64 (49% Trump, 44% Biden) back Trump while those 65 and over support Biden (52% Biden, 47% Trump).